ITC Q3 Earnings 2025: Cigarettes, FMCG Growth; PAT Declines

ITC Ltd is set to release its financial performance report for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2025 on Thursday. The company's board of directors will assess and finalize both the quarterly results and an interim dividend for the current financial year.

Analysts predict that ITC’s revenue may witness a single-digit increase, while net profit could decline on a year-over-year (YoY) basis due to a lower effective tax rate in Q3FY24. The cigarette and FMCG segments are projected to perform steadily, whereas growth in agriculture and paperboards businesses may remain under pressure.

Following the recent demerger of ITC Hotels, which saw its shares being allocated at a 1:10 ratio to existing ITC shareholders, the company’s financials may reflect adjustments in its overall revenue stream.

02:53 PM IST | Cigarette EBIT Growth Forecast

Kotak Institutional Equities estimates a 3.5 per cent YoY increase in cigarette volumes, translating to 7.5 per cent growth in gross cigarette sales. The cigarette EBIT margin is expected to contract by 145 basis points due to cost pressures in raw materials, including leaf tobacco.

02:32 PM IST | ITC Share Outlook Before Results

Emkay Global maintains a positive outlook on ITC’s diversified business, despite near-term challenges in the FMCG sector. The company’s strategic focus on foods and beverages is expected to help offset inflationary stress. Paper and agriculture remain areas of concern due to high competition and market fluctuations.

Emkay Global has slightly revised down its earnings estimates by approximately 2 per cent for FY25-FY27 while maintaining an ‘Add’ rating with a target price of Rs 520 per share. ITC stock has outperformed FMCG sector peers over the last six months.

02:22 PM IST | EBITDA Margin Projection

Nuvama Equities projects ITC’s Q3FY25 net profit at Rs 4,942 crore, reflecting a 3 per cent YoY decline. Revenue is expected to rise 8 per cent YoY to Rs 17,794 crore, with EBITDA likely falling by 4 per cent YoY to Rs 6,086 crore. The EBITDA margin is anticipated to shrink by 235 basis points to 34.2 per cent.

01:57 PM IST | Growth in Agri and Paper Segments

ITC’s agri-business sales are forecast to grow by 20 per cent YoY, mainly driven by increased tobacco exports. However, the paper segment may witness only a 2 per cent sales increase, with a significant 22 per cent drop in profit due to operational challenges and rising import competition.

01:23 PM IST | ITC Hotels Performance Post-Demerger

ITC Hotels is expected to report a 16 per cent YoY increase in Q3FY25 sales, supported by a strong wedding season and sustained holiday demand. The segment’s profitability may expand by 27 per cent YoY following the demerger effective January 1, 2025.

01:05 PM IST | FMCG Business Faces Margin Pressures

The FMCG division is likely to post modest 3 per cent YoY sales growth, with EBITDA margins under strain due to rising input costs in palm oil and wheat. Unlike some competitors, ITC has not aggressively cut advertising and promotional expenses to mitigate inflationary impact.

12:44 PM IST | Cigarette Margins Under Pressure

Nuvama Institutional Equities anticipates 3.5 per cent YoY growth in cigarette sales but expects a slight EBIT margin compression due to higher raw material costs.

12:19 PM IST | Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) Projection

MOFSL estimates a 0.9 per cent YoY drop in net profit to Rs 5,290 crore, with revenue rising 6.7 per cent to Rs 19,220 crore. EBITDA growth is forecast at 4.8 per cent, reaching Rs 6,820 crore, though margins could contract to 35.5 per cent.

11:53 AM IST | Cigarette EBIT Margins Declining

MOFSL predicts a 6 per cent YoY EBIT growth in the cigarette business but a 70 bps margin decline due to increased leaf tobacco prices. The FMCG segment may register a 3 per cent drop in EBIT, reflecting inflation-driven cost challenges.

10:56 AM IST | Axis Securities Forecast

Axis Securities projects a 9 per cent YoY increase in revenue, with cigarette business growth at 6 per cent and volume expansion of 3 per cent. The FMCG segment may rise 5 per cent, while the hotels business could see a 15 per cent YoY jump in revenue.

09:22 AM IST | ITC Stock Movement Ahead of Results

ITC shares opened at Rs 450.10 on the BSE, slipping 1.04 per cent to Rs 443.55. The stock has declined 3.5 per cent year-to-date and 3.7 per cent in the past six months. Despite this, ITC has delivered an 8 per cent return in the past year and surged 100 per cent over three years.

09:12 AM IST | Board to Consider Interim Dividend

Alongside Q3FY25 results, ITC’s board will review an interim dividend declaration. The company’s most recent dividend was a final payout of Rs ITC Q3 Earnings 2025: Cigarettes, FMCG Growth; PAT Declines

7.5 per share in June 2024.

ITC’s financial performance for Q3FY25 is anticipated to reflect revenue growth, driven by strong cigarette and FMCG sales. However, inflationary pressures, particularly in raw materials, could weigh on margins. Investors will closely watch dividend announcements and business segment performances for future guidance.